Life & Health Risks in a Changing Environmental Landscape
Climate change and wider environmental developments are reshaping risks across industries, with growing implications for future mortality and morbidity. In a recent Hannover Re UK webinar, experts explored what these evolving environmental and behavioural risks could mean for life and health (L&H) insurers, examining the health impacts of extreme weather and air pollution, uncertainties surrounding emerging risks such as microplastics, and the role of innovation in supporting future resilience.
Understanding the risks
Rising temperatures in the UK: implications for health and mortality
The UK Climate Change Committee has warned that global warming is accelerating, with heatwaves, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events becoming more frequent. [1] At the same time, seasonal weather patterns are shifting, with hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters expected across much of the UK.
While temperature often receives most attention, changing weather patterns may also affect health through increased humidity, dampness and flooding, which have been linked to respiratory illness, infections and wider health impacts.
Understanding how the body responds to extreme heat and cold helps explain why temperature remains a significant environmental driver of mortality and morbidity.
The impact of temperature on health follows a clear U-shaped relationship, with risks increasing at both ends of the spectrum. Analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests that, for people in the UK, health risks become elevated at temperatures above 25°C and below -5°C. [2]
Temperature-related relative mortality risk for England using data from 1988 to 2022 [3]
The effects of extreme temperatures are not distributed evenly across the population. Older adults, people with underlying health conditions and those exposed through their occupation or living environment are often among the most vulnerable. A recent UK example highlights how quickly extreme temperatures can translate into measurable health impacts. During the summer of 2022, temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time on record, with multiple locations across the UK experiencing unprecedented heat. Analysis by the ONS found that deaths during the hottest periods were approximately 6% higher than the five-year average. Turning to the more recent heatwaves experienced in May and June of this year, estimates suggest these could have led to ‘thousands’ more deaths in the UK [4], although we note that data is not sufficiently developed to draw firm conclusions.
Number of daily death occurrences, five-year average and heat-period days [5]
The periods of extreme heat are reflected in mortality data, with notable spikes during the July and August heatwaves. While some evidence suggests a subsequent reduction in deaths among the most vulnerable groups, the findings underline the significant and immediate impact that periods of extreme heat can have on population health. These impacts are unlikely to emerge solely through gradual change. Instead, more frequent short-term shocks, such as heatwaves, may contribute to broader shifts in mortality and morbidity trends over time.
Looking more broadly, cold-related mortality has historically outweighed heat-related mortality in the UK, meaning milder winters could reduce some excess winter deaths. However, climate change is unlikely to result in a simple offset. Most studies suggest that increases in heat-related deaths are likely to outweigh any reductions in cold-related deaths over time.
Microplastics: from headlines to health risks
Plastic is deeply embedded in modern life and, as larger items break down, they create microplastics and nanoplastics that are now found throughout the environment and within the human body. While research remains at an early stage, emerging evidence has explored potential links between microplastic exposure and a range of health outcomes, including cardiovascular, reproductive, digestive and neurological effects. However, the long-term health implications remain uncertain, with researchers yet to establish definitive causal relationships between exposure and disease.
Microplastics are not the only environmental contaminant attracting growing attention. Other emerging concerns include per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), often referred to as "forever chemicals", which have been widely used in consumer and industrial products for decades.[6]
IFor a more detailed discussion of the current evidence surrounding microplastics and health outcomes, read our previous ReCent article: Microplastics - ReCent Medical News: Microplastics: From headlines to health risk
UK air pollution: Impacts on mortality and morbidity
Air pollution is often discussed in environmental terms, but it also represents a significant public health challenge. The landmark 2020 inquest into the death of nine-year-old Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah was the first in the UK to recognise air pollution as a cause or contributing factor on a death certificate, bringing renewed attention to its impact on health outcomes.[7]
Although air pollution can arise from natural events, it is primarily driven by human activity. Major sources include road transport, domestic heating, industrial processes and agriculture. Among the various pollutants, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is considered the most harmful, as these microscopic particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream.
Exposure to air pollution has been linked to a wide range of health conditions, including cardiovascular disease, stroke, respiratory illness and certain cancers. Current estimates suggest that air pollution contributes to between 30,000 and 40,000 deaths each year in the UK, while reducing average life expectancy by almost two years.[8] In terms of its impact on population health, air pollution is therefore comparable to some of the most significant public health risks facing society, including smoking.
Nearly all of the UK population is exposed to air pollution levels that exceed World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines.[9] However, exposure is not evenly distributed and is often concentrated in urban areas, where pollution levels tend to be highest.
While respiratory conditions are often most closely associated with air pollution, research suggests a substantial proportion of air pollution-related mortality is attributable to cardiovascular disease. Analysis by Cohen et al. found that, although deaths from conditions such as COPD and lung cancer are significant, a large share of the mortality burden is driven by ischaemic heart disease and stroke.[10]
Despite this, it’s encouraging to see that air pollutant levels in the UK have declined over the past decade as a result of regulatory action, technological improvements and changes in behaviour. Looking ahead, particulate matter levels are expected to fall by around a third by 2050, while nitrogen oxide levels are projected to decline by between 35% and 50% over the same period.[11] However, as with many environmental risks, exposure is not distributed evenly across the population.
What does this all mean for L&H insurers?
Environmental risks vary considerably in their level of maturity and certainty. The health impacts of rising temperatures and air pollution are already supported by a substantial evidence base and are likely to remain important drivers of future mortality and morbidity trends.
By contrast, microplastics remain an emerging area of research. While their presence in human tissue is no longer in doubt, important questions remain around whether they represent a driver of disease, a contributing factor, or simply an indicator of wider environmental exposure.
For L&H insurers, these developments highlight the importance of understanding how environmental exposures may influence population health and future insured experience. Short-term events such as heatwaves may lead to temporary fluctuations in claims experience, making it important to distinguish short-term spikes from longer-term trends.
Population-level impacts may not translate directly into insured experience, while geographic, occupational and socioeconomic factors may become increasingly important when analysing risk exposure and future insured experience.
From an underwriting perspective, these developments are unlikely to require significant changes in the near term. However, greater awareness of environmental exposures may help improve understanding of risk, while more granular geographic analysis could support increasingly sophisticated approaches to segmentation and risk assessment.
From a claim’s perspective, environmental factors may play a more prominent role in discussions around illness and causes of death. As understanding of environmental risks continues to evolve, there may be greater scrutiny of how factors such as extreme temperatures, air pollution and other environmental exposures contribute to health outcomes and mortality.
Ultimately, environmental change is unlikely to result in a simple increase or decrease in risk. Instead, it introduces greater uncertainty and variability into future mortality and morbidity trends, reinforcing the importance of ongoing monitoring, research and adaptation.
Innovation, behavioural change and reasons for optimism
While much environmental change focuses on risk, there are also reasons to be optimistic. Periods of challenge have often accelerated innovation, and environmental challenges are similarly driving new ideas and technologies today.
Emerging innovations range from lower-carbon manufacturing processes to the use of artificial intelligence to identify and tackle pollution more effectively. Research is also exploring novel ways to repurpose waste materials, including the use of plastic waste in the production of pharmaceutical compounds.
of UK investors aged 18–34 consider ESG factors when making investment decisions [12]
Changing attitudes and behaviours are also shaping future outcomes. Younger generations consistently rank climate and environmental issues among their most important concerns and increasingly expect organisations to demonstrate a commitment to sustainability and social responsibility. Progress is being driven through collective action and public policy. Measures such as Ultra Low Emission Zones (ULEZ) and Clean Air Zones have been associated with improvements in air quality and health outcomes, demonstrating the potential value of coordinated action at scale. Emerging evidence also suggests these interventions can generate wider economic benefits by reducing pressure on healthcare services. [13]
Environmental issues also present opportunities for L&H insurers to enhance customer engagement, support prevention and build resilience, including through targeted communications, behavioural incentives and practical guidance during periods of extreme weather. Advances in technology and data may also improve understanding of future health risks. As the risk landscape evolves, insurers will need to balance emerging threats with opportunities to innovate, adapt and contribute to a more resilient future.
Contacts
Paul Edwards Underwriting Research & Systems Development Manager Hannover Re UK Life Branch Paul.Edwards@hannover-re.com
Kate Baldry Underwriting Research & Systems Developer
Hannover Re UK Life Branch Kate.Baldry@hannover-re.com
Eoin Collins Business Development Actuary Hannover Re UK Life Branch Eoin.Collins@hannover-re.com
Vicky Webb Head of Biometric Research
Hannover Re UK Life Branch Vicky.Webb@hannover-re.com
Tim Smith Head of Protection Hannover Re UK Life branch Tim.Smith@hannover-re.com
References
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- A Well‑Adapted UK – Climate Change Committee. Climate Change Committee. Available from: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/a-well-adapted-uk/
- Climate‑related mortality, England and Wales. Office for National Statistics. Available from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/climaterelatedmortalityandhospitaladmissionsenglandandwales/1988to2022
- Climate‑related mortality, England and Wales. Office for National Statistics. Available from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/climaterelatedmortalityandhospitaladmissionsenglandandwales/1988to2022
- Thousands will have died in UK's unprecedented May and June heatwaves. BBC News. Available from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx5zy82n7no
- Excess mortality during heat‑periods. Office for National Statistics. Available from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessmortalityduringheatperiods/englandandwales1juneto31august2022
- Insurance Risks from PFAS – Per‑ and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances. Hannover Re. Available from: https://www.hannover-re.com/en/property-and-casualty/emerging-risks-insights/pfas/
- Ella Roberta Family Foundation. Available from: https://www.ellaroberta.org/
- Air pollution linked to 30,000 UK deaths in 2025 and costs the economy and NHS billions. Royal College of Physicians. Available from: https://www.rcp.ac.uk/news-and-media/news-and-opinion/air-pollution-linked-to-30-000-uk-deaths-in-2025-and-costs-the-economy-and-nhs-billions-warns-royal-college-of-physicians/
- Air pollution data theme. World Health Organization. Available from: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/air-pollution
- Global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution. Cohen AJ, et al. Lancet. 2017;389(10087):e15. doi: 10.1016/S0140‑6736(17)31221‑7.
- Exposure to air pollution in England, 2003–2023. Gadenne L, et al. Institute for Fiscal Studies. Available from: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/exposure-air-pollution-england-2003-23
- Climate change is a big concern for Millennials and Gen Zs. The Story Exchange. Available from: https://thestoryexchange.org/climate-change-is-a-big-concern-for-millennials-and-gen-zs-new-data-reveals/
- Air pollution is an invisible danger – and we’re using data to help fight it. NHS England Digital. Available from: https://digital.nhs.uk
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